Is there a chance to see with your own eyes the decline of the leading world currency?Doesn’t the intention of Russia, India and China to conduct calculations in national currencies lead to this? What is the significance of the Shanghai oil exchange trading Yuan? Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Igor Panarin makes his assumptions. Will they come true, and if so, how soon? To understand this, carefully follow the situation in the global financial and economic sphere.
Hello dear friends! I am a professor Panarin Igor Nikolaevich, doctor of political sciences.
Today we will look at a very volatile and debatable topic. I do not pretend to be exceptional, to the ultimate truth, but I wanted everyone who watches this video to try to ask the same question as I did: the collapse of the dollar — is it possible or not? Is this a myth or a reality, or maybe unreality? But your task is to listen to my arguments and analyze the course of current, and most importantly, future events in the global monetary system.
So, in 2006, I offered to sell Russian oil and gas for rubles, and this idea was supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin. On May 10, 2006, in the Address to the Federal Assembly, he clearly set tasks for the coming year: first: to switch to selling oil and gas for rubles and second: to create an oil and gas exchange in St. Petersburg And third, he said even more: why would we sell for rubles not only gas and oil, but why can’t we sell other products? But, nevertheless, blocking of these initiatives, which were supported at the highest level, began very quickly and the St. Petersburg Oil Exchange was created, but only in 2008. And the volume of deliveries and sales in rubles on this exchange is scanty, about one percent of the sale of oil in rubles.
And so it was until about 2014. In 2014, the Russian company Zarubezhneft for the first time sold a shipment of oil to Vietnam for Russian rubles and slowly Russian companies began to use the ruble to sell oil and gas. But while the volume is minimal.
And in October 2018, in my opinion, a historical document passes, which is signed by the Russian and Indian government. The fact is that Russia has pledged to supply India with S-400 air defense systems. The Americans were categorically against it, but India nevertheless made this political and geopolitical decision.
But what is the focus and where is the dollar? The fact is that our government has agreed that payment, for the first time in relations in the field of armaments between India and Russia, will not be in dollars, but in rubles. That is, the approximate value of the contract for the supply of several divisions of the C-400 is about $ 5 billion. But the parties agreed that the payment will be in rubles.
Thus, Russia is coming out of the dollar bundle on this largest arms contract with its strategic, military-political and military-technical partner — India. This is an essential component that indicates that the Russian leadership has, in principle, turned to practical action.
But now let’s see what is happening in general with the dollar and with oil and what are the prospects for a truly collapse.
If we look at the map, here we see the Caspian Sea and the Baku oil fields. It was there that at the end of the XIXcentury, for the first time in the world, minerals began to be mined, which are now actively used. Oil is the main achievement of Azerbaijan, which was then part of the Russian Empire. Baku trades and became the number one fisheries in the world.
More than a hundred years have passed, oil fields exist in other regions of the world, but all the time there are two key oil exchanges: in New York and in London, which organize the sale of oil for dollars. And on March 26, 2018, a historic event in the field of oil deals in Shanghai takes place: the Shanghai Oil Exchange opens on the territory of the People’s Republic of China, and it starts selling oil not in dollars, but in yuan. And look, half a year has passed since March 2018, and the sales volume in yuan has already amounted to 11 percent of the total world market for oil. That is, 89 remained on the side of the dollar. This is an impressive success.
Why this success was achieved in the shortest possible time — in six months? It was achieved only because China in 2017 became the largest consumer of oil, and according to forecasts for the next 10 years, China will keep firmly the world leadership in oil consumption. Consequently, if a company such as Rosneft, the largest, by the way, oil supplier in the territory of the Chinese Republic, enters the Shanghai Oil Exchange, or, on the contrary, contracts in national currencies between China and Russia are signed, then the volume of oil trading in dollars apparently, it will already fall to seventy percent, and there it is not far to the collapse of the dollar.
Of course, the collapse of the dollar is unlikely to occur in the next year or two. But, on the other hand, if the pace of reorientation of the national economies of the three giants: Russia, China and India, will be focused on dedollarization, then of course, the effect of a falling dollar, including its collapse, may become a reality by 2020.
So will it be or not? We will see … But I urge you to look at current events in the field of oil sales, arms sales, in the field of concluding contracts in national currencies between Russia and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, other states. Any of these agreements in national currencies sharply narrow the dollar zone, which means it collapses.
Thanks for attention!